How a special election runoff will tell whether Texas is a political battleground in 2020

AUSTIN — Texans will know by Tuesday night whether their state truly is a battleground in the political wars of 2020.

Just southeast of Houston in Fort Bend County, voters in Texas House District 28 will settle a special election runoff that has become a proxy war not only for the entire Lone Star State, but also for a handful of candidates and former candidates for president.

At first blush, it seems like an unlikely setting for a contest to test the political winds of the nation's second largest state. Not only is it just a sliver of the electorate with just one-150th of the state's population, it's also enclave that hasn't sent a Democrat to Austin in almost 20 years.

First, a bit of background. The seat was left vacant when Republican state Rep. John Zerwas resigned to accept a job with the University of Texas system. In the Nov. 5 special election, Democratic educator Eliz Markowitz was the top vote-getter with 39 percent while a crowded field of Republicans divvied up the remaining 61 percent.

Intuition and history suggests the Republican in Tuesday's runoff, businessman and entrepreneur Gary Gates, should be cruising with the wind at his back.He was the top finisher among the Republicans and has the full-throated support of Gov. Greg Abbott and much of the state's well-organized Republican establishment.

Assuming Gates consolidates the votes from the GOP also-rans from the November election, he should expect an easy 60-40 cushion for the special.

But Democrats buoyed by the party's 12 state House seat pick-ups in the 2018 midterms, are knocking themselves out on behalf of Markowitz.

Beto O'Rourke was still smarting from his Nov. 1 withdrawal from the Democratic presidential primary campaign when he rebooted his campaign infrastructure to benefit Markowitz. He's been campaigning almost non-stop in District 28 for weeks.

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Democratic presidential frontrunners Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren have endorsed Markowitz. Mike Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor who is also seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, block-walked on the candidate's behalf. So has former candidate Julian Castro of Texas.

Forward Majority, a national Democratic political group, has pumped $400,000 into the race on Markowitz's behalf. Some of the money was used to publicize Gates' run-in with state child welfare workers nearly two decades ago over his discipline practices with his 13 kids, 11 of whom were adopted.

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The matter was dropped with no charges filed. Gates' camp countered with a TV spot rebutting the charges that featured on of the children, now grown, saying "Shame on you" to Markowitz and insisting the original attacks "are false."

The Texas Republican Party is taking the runoff seriously.

"HD28 is ground-zero for a hostile socialist takeover of the Texas Legislature," said state GOP Chairman James Dickey. "We have to fight back...everything is on the line: our right to self-defense, lower taxes and spending, and protecting the unborn."

Gilberto Hinojosa, the state Democratic chairman, pushed back and said Markowitz embodies the values of a changing district.

"Dr. Markowitz is a perfect representation of Fort Bend County," he said. "An educator, fighter, and leader, Dr. Markowitz knows it's all about the fair shot every Texan deserves."

The runoff voting is also coinciding with the televised impeachment trial of President Donald Trump. While Markowitz appears to be welcoming the national attention, the Gates camp seems less concerned with bringing in outside forces. 

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Gates' website does prominently tout Abbott's endorsement, but the site makes no mention of Trump.

Democrats acknowledge they face an uphill charge in District 28 and some say that simply coming close in the runoff would be a moral victory. 

And no matter who prevails Tuesday night, the newly elected representative might never sit on the House floor during a legislative session. The term ends in less than a year, just before the 2021 Legislature convenes.

Both candidates, meanwhile, are running in the March 3 primary. Gates has one opponent; Markowitz has a free ride on the Democratic side. So the 2020 battle District 28, just like the 2020 battle for Texas, will go on until November.

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at jmoritz@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo.