NBA Picks

Despite a less-than-stellar showing in their 94-92 Game 1 win over the New Orleans Pelicans, the Oklahoma City Thunder should be able to cover a 7.5-point spread at home in Game 2. OKC shot just 43.5% from the field and 31% from three in the opener – well below their season averages as one of the NBA’s most efficient offenses.

With playoff jitters hopefully behind them, the Thunder’s dynamic scoring duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams should have more success getting open looks and knocking down shots. Rookie Chet Holmgren also showed his immense potential with 15 points, 11 boards and 5 blocks in his playoff debut. Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be severely shorthanded again without elite scorer Zion Williamson. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum combined to shoot just 14-for-39 in the opener. If they struggle again from the field, it will be extremely difficult for New Orleans to keep pace with OKC’s offensive firepower over 48 minutes.

The Thunder’s youth was a factor in their Game 1 struggles, but those early playoff jitters are gone now. Expect OKC’s superior talent to shine through at home as they pull away late for a comfortable win and cover.

Thunder -7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans combined for just 186 total points in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series. With both offenses misfiring for much of the game, the scoring output was understandably low in a 94-92 final.

However, some positive regression is likely coming for these two talented offensive teams in Game 2. The over/under is set at 211.5 points, and there are good reasons to think that number gets surpassed on Wednesday night.

For Oklahoma City, they simply missed too many open looks in the opener as a product of playoff jitters. The Thunder shot just 43.5% from the floor and 31% from three – well below their season averages as one of the NBA’s elite offensive teams. Stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren won’t misfire that badly again.

On New Orleans’ side, the absence of Zion Williamson certainly hurts their scoring punch. But players like Brandon Ingram (5-for-17 FG) and CJ McCollum (9-for-22 FG) are too talented to have another off-night from the field. Look for their shot-making to improve in Game 2.

With some positive regression on both sides, this Game 2 total looks very reasonable to surpass the 211.5 mark. Back the over as these offenses start to find their rhythm.

Over 211.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 213.

The Orlando Magic return home to the Kia Center on Thursday night for Game 3, but they find themselves down 2 games to none and in desperate need of a win. Orlando was the most profitable team ATS this season, going 51-33 overall while posting a 27-13 record ATS when playing on their home court. Since opening, the line has shifted from the Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites to the Magic now favored by 1.5 points. And while the Magic have been tough to beat at home, I’m siding with the now underdog Cavs. Cleveland has won 3 of their last 4 games against Orlando while holding them under 100 points in all 3 wins.

Through 2 games, the Magic scored 83 and 86 points while shooting a combined 34.3% from the field and 23.6% from 3-point range. I don’t see much changing for the Magic in Game 3 considering they rank 22nd in offensive rating and often rely on their defensive efforts. The Cavs are much more well-balanced and have dominated in the rebounding department – outrebounding Orlando 102-81 with Jarrett Allen bringing down 38 himself. The biggest difference maker in this series however is #45 Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell put up 30 and 23 in the first 2 games and could take over at any moment. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have gotten their points in this series, but the Cavs will live with that when everyone else has been a non-factor.

Cavaliers ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Rarely in the modern-day NBA do we get a point total south of 200 points, but this was the type of series we’ve come to expect. The first 2 games of the series fell under the number with totals of 180 and 182, and I’m not straying away from the trend. Both of these teams rank top-7 in defensive rating and bottom-7 in pace. Through 2 games, it’s been an absolute stone fight and neither team has even broken 100 points. The style in which these teams play are often times going to lead to these lower-scoring affairs, and Orlando’s best perimeter defender in Jalen Suggs is expected to play in Game 3 despite suffering a knee injury on Monday. I’m on the side of another low-scoring game and backing the under.

Under 199.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Nuggets extended their dominant streak over the Lakers after completing a thrilling 19-point second-half comeback, capped by Jamal Murray’s buzzer-beating step-back jumper over Anthony Davis. Denver has now claimed the past 10 head-to-head matchups against Los Angeles and has a real chance of extending that streak to 11 straight games on Thursday night.

Despite holding a comfortable lead midway through the third quarter, the Lakers’ offense faltered down the stretch, while their defense was unable to contain Murray and soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. If the Lakers couldn’t secure a win over the Nuggets after having a sky-high in-game win probability in Game 2, it’s hard to envision Los Angeles making this series competitive, even with the series shifting to their home court.

Denver’s ability to exploit mismatches in their two-man game featuring Murray and Jokic continues to be a major advantage. Meanwhile, the Lakers’ halfcourt offense looked disjointed on Monday night, and with limited support from outside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and DeAngelo Russell, the more well-rounded Nuggets are poised to continue their dominance with a road win and take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Nuggets money line (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to (-125).

The Lakers’ lackluster second half – mustering just 40 points – could carry over into another inefficient offensive showing from L.A., leading to another low-scoring contest that favors the under 216 (-110). Los Angeles’ inability to get consistent offensive production from Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura certainly doesn’t help their chances of making this a competitive best-of-seven series – and also diminishes the over bettors’ chances of winning their wagers.

Although Denver’s gotten production from its usual suspects, the Nuggets haven’t shot the three-ball well this series, most recently going 8-of-34 (23.5%) from beyond the arc. With both offenses struggling to operate at their peak level at the moment, the under is our preferred betting angle for Game 3.

Under 216 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It might not have looked pretty, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have managed to win both games against the Suns and find themselves in the driver’s seat as the two teams are set to meet in Game 3 on Friday. Minnesota is 3rd in both offensive and defensive rating through 2 games of this postseason, plus out they have the best Net Rating out of all the teams that have played 2 games so far. Even with Anthony Edwards struggling on offense they still won Game 2 by 12 points, Jaden McDaniels stepped up with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Winning game 3 would be a massive step towards the Conference semi-finals, but this will by far be the hardest game of this season for the young Timberwolves. Are they up for the task?

Kevin Durant will certainly have something to say about that. The Suns have had a lot of bad luck so far in this series. Their leading 3-point shooter Grayson Allen sprained his ankle in both games, he is likely to be out for several weeks. The lowest scoring bench through the regular season is also struggling in the playoffs, I’m looking at the big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal to pick up the slack here. This will be a familiar feeling for Phoenix, they found themselves in a 2-0 hole in last season’s series against Denver, after which they were able to come back with consecutive wins. I know it’s hard to justify backing a team after seeing them fail to crack the 100 point mark in back-to-back games, but this series is far from over. I’ll take the Suns to cover in Game 3.

Suns -4 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I just don’t get why the Suns have stayed away from playing at a fast pace in this series so far. That has worked to perfection in the 3 regular season meetings, resulting in games with 133 and 125 points for them. Losing Grayson Allen is a devastating blow to an already thin rotation, but we’ve seen players like Royce O’Neale and Eric Gordon step up in the past. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have also left a lot to be desired over the first two games, one of them could be in line for a breakout game here. Minnesota’s defense has worked perfectly over the first two games, but playing on the road will be a much tougher task. The projected total has gone down for the 3rd straight game, now it’s at a very modest 208.5 points. I think there’s enough talent on these two rosters for them to go over that number. Back the points.

Over 208.5 Total Points is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Miami Heat’s backs are against the wall in game two as they take on the Boston Celtics at the TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics won game one convincingly 114-94 behind a 23-point triple-double from Jayson Tatum and 20 points from Derrick White. The Miami Heat will need to put up more resistance in game two. They never led in game one and trailed by double figures for most of the game. Jimmy Butler was a non-participant in game one, and it was confirmed that Butler will likely miss the entire series with an injury. Terry Rozier will also miss tonight with an injury, limiting Miami’s options for adjustments that can be made. The Celtics were undoubtedly the best team in the Eastern Conference this season, and they are looking to avenge last season’s elimination in the Eastern Conference Finals to the hands of the Miami Heat. The Heat won the first three games of that series. Boston stormed back winning the next three games but eventually fell in game seven. Boston was the favorite to go to the NBA Finals that year and certainly remembers the antics of Jimmy Butler and company. This year is the perfect opportunity for Boston to get even with Miami.

The Heat will need to make adjustments if they want to keep game two close. First adjustment, the Heat need to get off to a better start in this game. The Celtics jumped off to an early 14-0 lead in the opening minutes of game one. The second adjustment the Heat need to make is an increased amount of pressure on the Celtics perimeter shooters. Boston shot 44.9% from three-point range and had six players scoring in double figures. We have seen Boston berate their opponents all season from behind the arc, but if any coach can find an answer, it’s Erik Spoelstra. Even considering the effects that Erik Spoelstra has, I still believe the Celtics will win this game and win it big. We may see Miami put up a good fight in the first half, but we’ll eventually see Boston pull away in the second half. Boston is by far the better team in this series and would need to perform below their standards for this game to be close. I believe that the Celtics have a first-round sweep on their mind considering last season’s ending. They played such an efficient game one that felt sustainable. It didn’t feel like the Celtics had to exert themselves to blow out Miami. Erik Spoelstra will put the Heat in the best position to win but I don’t believe that will be enough.

Celtics -14.5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics will play game two of their first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference Wednesday night. The Celtics dominated in game one, winning 114-94 behind a triple-double performance from Jayson Tatum. The Celtics went up 14-0 early in the game and the Heat were never able to recover. Miami Heat head coach, Erik Spoelstra will be burdened with the task of trying to find an adjustment to make against the number one seed in the Eastern Conference heading into game two with no Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier. The Celtics are trying to avenge last year’s postseason ending when they were knocked out as favorites in the Eastern Conference Finals by the Miami Heat in seven games. The Celtics shot an efficient 44.9% from three-point range in game one. I believe that the main adjustment for Miami will be to contain the three-point shot. Boston is a difficult team to keep in check, but when they have 22 makes from beyond the arc it is near impossible. If the Heat send shooters out to defend the perimeter, that will leave Bam Adebayo alone inside to protect the painted area. Simply put, I don’t believe there is an adjustment Miami can make that will slow down the Celtics. I do believe we will see a better start and offensive performance from Miami. I’ll side with this game to go over the total.

Over 204 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.