NBA Picks

Expert NBA picks for the best of the NBA action throughout the 2023/24 season. We crunch the numbers, analyze the data, and provide free NBA expert picks every day. You can trust our expert NBA handicappers to find all the key betting trends and make reliable NBA picks you can trust.

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Point Spread Pick

IND Pacers +6.0IND Pacers @ NY Knicks

Reasoning

The Indiana Pacers are a wise bet to cover the 6-point spread in Game 1 against the New York Knicks. Despite being underdogs on the road, Indiana matches up well and has less fatigue concerns. The Pacers just eliminated the higher-seeded Bucks behind their explosive offense that averaged 123.3 points per game in the regular season. They’ll now face a Knicks defense that allowed 108.2 points per game in the opening round.

New York is shorthanded too after a physical series against Philadelphia left their rotation depleted. Jalen Brunson has been stellar, but played heavy minutes and may tire against Indiana’s fresher legs. The Pacers can exploit defensive breakdowns, especially from New York’s bench players. While the Knicks have home-court, Indiana covered the spread in 2 of 3 regular season meetings at MSG. Overall, I expect Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and the Pacers’ balanced attack to keep this game tight. New York may pull it out, but expect Indiana’s offense to give them problems and keep the final margin within the 6-point spread.

Pacers +6 available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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$37.86

Game Totals Pick

Over 217.5IND Pacers @ NY Knicks

Reasoning

The Game 1 total of 217.5 points between the Pacers and Knicks seems ripe to go over. Both teams boast potent offenses that could light up the scoreboard at Madison Square Garden. Indiana ranked 1st in the regular season at 123.3 points per game, while New York was 4th at 115.1. Those offenses showed up in the opening playoff round too.

The Pacers scored 113.0 points per game against Milwaukee’s vaunted defense. The Knicks managed 108.3 points a night versus the 76ers despite just a seven-man rotation. Jalen Brunson is playing out of his mind, posting 35.5 points per game to lead all playoff scorers so far.

Defensive issues plagued both squads in Round 1 as well. Indiana surrendered 110.2 points per contest, while New York gave up 108.2 despite its reputation. With firepower on both sides and some shaky defense, expecting a track meet in Game 1 is reasonable. Bet the over 217.5 points as these offensive juggernauts get the second round started.

Over 217.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 219.

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$38.52

Ed Perovic

Point Spread Pick

DEN Nuggets -5.5MIN Timberwolves @ DEN Nuggets

Reasoning

The second-seeded Nuggets look to rebound and even up their best-of-seven series against the third-seeded Timberwolves following Saturday night’s 106-99 loss in Game 1. Despite struggling to contain Timberwolves’ superstar guard Anthony Edwards, who dropped a game-high 43 points on 17-of-29 shooting, there’s reason for optimism for Nuggets’ spread bettors in Game 2.

It’s hard to imagine another “off-night” for soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. The do-everything big man’s ability to read defenses should lead to a bounce-back performance after Minnesota focused on negating his success as a passer. Jokic still finished Game 1 with 9 assists, but generating high-percentage looks was much tougher against a Timberwolves defense that finished the regular season with the No. 1 defensive rating.

While the Nuggets don’t necessarily have the ideal personnel to slow Edwards down in Game 2, as long as they keep Minnesota’s secondary scorers – Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Conley Jr., and Naz Reid – in check, Denver is in a good position to secure the home win and cover the spread. Towns, Conley Jr., and Reid dominated the Nuggets from three-point territory, combining to shoot 7-of-12 from deep. However, although all three are reliable shooters, it’ll be challenging for them to repeat their performance against a Nuggets team that ranked 5th in three-point percentage defense over the regular season.

Nuggets -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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$18.93

Game Totals Pick

Under 206.5MIN Timberwolves @ DEN Nuggets

Reasoning

If the Nuggets’ perimeter defense forces the Timberwolves into a below-average three-point shooting night, the under 206.5 points looks like the right bet for Game 2. Even though I believe Jokic’s playmaking ability will be the difference in Denver tying the series at one game apiece, it will still be relatively tough for the Nuggets to have an efficient scoring night against the Timberwolves’ vaunted defense. It also helps that the under has been a profitable bet in games the Nuggets have closed as favorites, going 41-30-1 this season. The under has also hit at a profitable clip in Nuggets’ home games (22-19), suggesting another lower-scoring defensive battle could be in the cards for Game 2.

Under 206.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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$18.93

Nick Musial

NBA Video

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NBA Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against the Spread In The NBA?

Betting against the spread means to bet on the favourite to win by a certain amount of points or the underdog to win or lose by fewer than a certain amount.

Picks against the spread are popular amongst NBA bettors because they give more favorable odds for favorites and less risk when betting on an underdog.

NBA bets against the spread can be lucrative with some research, maybe the favorite has an injury, maybe the underdog has a strong match-up. Factors like these may not change who the winning team is but if you think it will change the margin of the victory NBA bets against the spread is where you can make it count.

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