NBA Picks

The sixth-seeded Pacers aim to take a 2-1 series lead on Friday night after evening the best-of-seven series with a 125-108 win in Game 2. Indiana finds itself favored by five points at home with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and potentially Khris Middleton (ankle) still sidelined for the Bucks. Milwaukee’s defensive struggles in Game 2 – allowing Indiana to shoot 55.6% from the field and 44% from three – are a major concern against a Pacers offense that finished the regular season second in offensive rating (122.2). Without two of their most potent offensive weapons, Milwaukee likely lacks the firepower to keep pace with Indiana.

Damian Lillard has valiantly kept the Bucks competitive, scoring 35 and 34 points in the series, but their offense sputters in Antetokounmpo’s absence. Given Milwaukee’s porous defense in Game 2, I have more faith in Rick Carlisle’s squad getting the job done at home and taking a 2-1 series lead. Back the Pacers to win and cover.

Pacers -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Even with the current total of 221.5 suggesting a fast-paced, high-scoring contest, I still think we’re in for another offense-centric track meet that goes over the total. Milwaukee’s shaky defense is likely to lead to another 115-plus-point showing from Indiana. While I believe the Pacers will ultimately win by a margin, their defense isn’t anything special either (ranked 24th). Facing a Bucks team without Antetokounmpo presents a significantly easier task for the Pacers’ inefficient defense. It’s fair to assume they’ll get enough key stops to win the game by a few possessions, but not enough to hold this game under the total.

Over 221.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It might not have looked pretty, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have managed to win both games against the Suns and find themselves in the driver’s seat as the two teams are set to meet in Game 3 on Friday. Minnesota is 3rd in both offensive and defensive rating through 2 games of this postseason, plus out they have the best Net Rating out of all the teams that have played 2 games so far. Even with Anthony Edwards struggling on offense they still won Game 2 by 12 points, Jaden McDaniels stepped up with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Winning game 3 would be a massive step towards the Conference semi-finals, but this will by far be the hardest game of this season for the young Timberwolves. Are they up for the task?

Kevin Durant will certainly have something to say about that. The Suns have had a lot of bad luck so far in this series. Their leading 3-point shooter Grayson Allen sprained his ankle in both games, he is likely to be out for several weeks. The lowest scoring bench through the regular season is also struggling in the playoffs, I’m looking at the big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal to pick up the slack here. This will be a familiar feeling for Phoenix, they found themselves in a 2-0 hole in last season’s series against Denver, after which they were able to come back with consecutive wins. I know it’s hard to justify backing a team after seeing them fail to crack the 100 point mark in back-to-back games, but this series is far from over. I’ll take the Suns to cover in Game 3.

Suns -4 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I just don’t get why the Suns have stayed away from playing at a fast pace in this series so far. That has worked to perfection in the 3 regular season meetings, resulting in games with 133 and 125 points for them. Losing Grayson Allen is a devastating blow to an already thin rotation, but we’ve seen players like Royce O’Neale and Eric Gordon step up in the past. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have also left a lot to be desired over the first two games, one of them could be in line for a breakout game here. Minnesota’s defense has worked perfectly over the first two games, but playing on the road will be a much tougher task. The projected total has gone down for the 3rd straight game, now it’s at a very modest 208.5 points. I think there’s enough talent on these two rosters for them to go over that number. Back the points.

Over 208.5 Total Points is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We all know the closeout game is the toughest one in basketball, but if anyone can do it it’s the Denver Nuggets. The defending champs have the opportunity to become the first team to sweep an opponent in this year’s postseason, following another masterful performance on Thursday as they beat the Lakers 112-105. Despite shooting just 17% from downtown, a total of 4 starters scored 20+ points in the win. It was a total team effort dominance by the Nuggets, just like we’re accustomed to seeing them do. They’ll have to soak it in quickly and turn their attention to Saturday, as they try to dispose of the Lakers on their own court.

LA once again led by double-digits, this time it was a 12 point lead early, but they once again faltered. It was their 11th straight loss to this Nuggets team, I’m beginning to think this is now a mental thing for LA, they just cannot get over the hump Even 70 points inside the paint and 25 fast break points weren’t enough, and now the team in purple and gold faces a 2nd consecutive sweep in the postseason. The bench once again didn’t live up to expectations, only 3 players scored a total of 19 points. D’Angelo Russell had one of his worst games this year, failing to score in 24 mins played. Without fixing their rebounding and three-point accuracy, I’m afraid the season could be over for LA on Saturday.

Even the most optimistic Lakers fans out there have likely lost all faith in this team. The team just looked deflated in Game 3 and I am a firm believer that game was their best chance of getting one in this series. There’s not a better team in the NBA when it comes to closeout games, I’m going with Denver to finish things off on Saturday.

Nuggets -3 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Lakers really tried to push the pace in Game 3, resulting in 217 points combined which equaled the tally from Game 1. With them on the brink of getting swept once again, I really don’t see how they contain these Nuggets on offense. Denver has very little flaws on that end of the floor, they just dominated in the rebounding department 51-38, outside of AD the Lakers don’t really have anyone to counter what Jokic and co. are doing on the boards. Both teams shot the ball poorly from deep and we were still within a point of cashing on the over. I’m expecting that to pick up in Game 3, I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Darvin Ham opted for a line-up change after Russell’s poor shooting display. The last 10 meetings have averaged 223.8 points per game, I’ll happily take the over for Saturday’s closeout game.

Over 216.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.