James White
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
778 followers
500+ connections
Articles by James
Activity
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Congratulations to Hugh Nickola on his 12-year anniversary with GenTrust. Hugh has been our Head of Fixed Income and a partner of the firm since day…
Congratulations to Hugh Nickola on his 12-year anniversary with GenTrust. Hugh has been our Head of Fixed Income and a partner of the firm since day…
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Honored to be named a #Titan100 in #Philadelphia this year! Thanks to TITAN CEO for this award and to my colleagues at the World Affairs Council of…
Honored to be named a #Titan100 in #Philadelphia this year! Thanks to TITAN CEO for this award and to my colleagues at the World Affairs Council of…
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I’m honored and humbled by the #marketsmedia recognition. Beacon is a leader in advancing and supporting diverse talent and is laser-focused on…
I’m honored and humbled by the #marketsmedia recognition. Beacon is a leader in advancing and supporting diverse talent and is laser-focused on…
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Experience
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Education
Volunteer Experience
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Trustee
Trustee
Southern California Public Radio
Publications
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What's Past is Not Prologue
SSRN
In this note we present several thought experiments involving coin-flipping to illustrate the common tendency to over-weight past data in forecasting the future, particularly in the context of investment returns. We start by describing a survey we conducted of about 700 respondents involving the identification of a biased coin. From there, we connect a simple coin-flipping thought experiment to the challenge of picking good investments based on past returns. We then develop a more realistic…
In this note we present several thought experiments involving coin-flipping to illustrate the common tendency to over-weight past data in forecasting the future, particularly in the context of investment returns. We start by describing a survey we conducted of about 700 respondents involving the identification of a biased coin. From there, we connect a simple coin-flipping thought experiment to the challenge of picking good investments based on past returns. We then develop a more realistic model (moving on from coin-flipping) that shows the difficulty in discerning attractive investments from within a pool of mostly unattractive ones. We conclude with some observations on other practical challenges in using past returns to identify exceptional investment opportunities.
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More activity by James
I’m happy to share my promotion to COO during this exciting time at Beacon. I look forward to expanding the progress we’ve made evolving the…
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Libor reform not only gave us much more robust benchmark rates, but also opened some areas of mathematics for deeper exploration. I am excited to see…
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Beacon is delighted to announce that Alla Liberman has joined as Head of Business and Operational Strategy. In this new role, Alla will take the lead…
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Today, I am honored to announce that I have been appointed as the Honorary Consul of #Sweden for #pennsylvania, taking the reigns from my dear friend…
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Yesterday, I was honored to receive the Best LA 2020 Marcus & Millichap Rising Star award. I am thankful for all the support from our team here at…
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