Create data-driven decision support tools to safely reopen
the PA economy and achieve the following policy goals:
● Minimize the diffusion of COVID-19
● Maximize a rapid return to work and revitalize key industries ● Limit long-term economic impact of COVID-19 & the shut down ● Achieve equitable outcomes for vulnerable residents Recap: Data-driven Decision Support Tools
Inputs: Data & Priorities Decisions we can
Outputs support Public Data from Census, Which industries can safely BLS, BEA open, in which counties, and under what conditions? Health and Economic Data from State Agencies: UI Monitoring Dashboard Claims, Wage Records, What will be the health risks Revenue, SNAP, TANF, and economic impact Health Risks Medicaid, Revenue, DCED, associated with opening an industry? Health Economic Impact Which industries can Health and Human Services re-engineer workflows? Impact on Equity Forecasts/Models from Partners (Pitt, Penn) What impact will this have on Evaluating the Impact of vulnerable workers & policy interventions State Priorities & Policy businesses? Goals Risk-Based Approach We take a wide variety of risks associated with re-opening a set of industries in a county or region. In addition to what we show in this presentation, we have also explored and developed additional ones including:
● Face-to-face contact risk in workplaces
● Nursing home spread risk ● Customer contact risk ● Supply Chain risk ● Resilience ● Unemployment Risk ● Social Service Benefits Risk ● Equity Risk ● ... Risk Indices
COVID Case Risk: # of reported COVID-19 cases / population of area
ICU Capacity Risk: # of 60+ year olds in area / # of unoccupied ICU Beds
Population Density Risk: Population of Region / Area of Region
Population Age Risk: % of population in area > 60 yr old
Re-Opening Contact Risk: % of workers in an area employed in currently “physically
closed” industry sectors COVID-19 Case Risk ICU Capacity Risk Population Density Risk Population Age Risk Re-Opening Contact Risk Our recommendation is to use these risk indices to monitor and understand trade-offs and make informed policy decisions based on state priorities