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By any fair measure, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has reason to be optimistic about his re-election prospects. The far-right Republican eked out a narrow victory four years ago — winning the gubernatorial race by 0.4% — but in recent months, polls have shown DeSantis with comfortable leads. The latest FiveThirtyEight projection showed the incumbent with a 92% chance of winning a second term.
For Florida Democrats, these developments have been highly discouraging. For national Democrats, there’s a fear that November’s election will be little more than a speed bump as the governor eyes the White House.
What DeSantis’ opponents have hoped for is something new that might shake up the election — maybe something like the governor and his operation using lies to lure desperate migrants onto airplanes, and then using Florida residents’ money to transport them from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard as part of a legally dubious stunt.
Clearly, the Republican governor decided to take a chance on an idea that appeared more designed for 2024 than 2022. But what if the scandalous gambit backfires at an inopportune time?
The Miami Herald reported late last week on the fact that prominent voices in the Venezuelan American community were not pleased. Maria Corina Vegas, who helps lead the bipartisan American Business Immigration Coalition, told the newspaper, “The governor likes to pander to communities like mine, traumatized by political persecution and violence. This is a new low, even for this governor.”
Yareliz Mendez-Zamora, who helps lead the Florida Immigrant Coalition, added that DeSantis and his lieutenant governor — who recently said that Cuban immigrants who were in Florida “illegally” should be bused out of the state — are “showing that they’re against all immigrants.”
A day later, Politico reported:
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ decision to transport mostly Venezuelan migrants to Martha’s Vineyard earlier this week could hurt the Republican governor in November with a key constituency that the GOP has sought to win over. The move by DeSantis dominated the radio and television airwaves in South Florida — where large swaths of Hispanic voters live. One Spanish radio host loudly denounced the move and even compared DeSantis’ actions to that of deceased Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, who relocated Cubans in the early ’60s.
In case this isn’t painfully obvious, I can safely say, as a Miami native, that when a governor is being compared to Castro on Spanish-language radio in the Miami area, that’s not great for an incumbent.
It is, however, an opportunity for DeSantis’ rival. Politico reported that Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee in the race, “rushed out a new digital ad targeting Hispanics and the Venezuelan community as part of a six-figure buy pounding DeSantis over his attention-getting move.” The ads started reaching voters on Saturday.
Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo, a congressional candidate in Miami, added, “From a Miami perspective, [DeSantis’ stunt was] a huge mistake. All these Republicans ... historically talk about socialism and communism and that we are standing up to these horrible dictators. The migrants are fleeing exactly what Republicans say they are fighting against.”
To be sure, electoral considerations are less important than suffering human beings who were exploited by a far-right politician. But the politics isn’t irrelevant: DeSantis did this, not to help desperate people, but to help himself. If his malice backfires, it matters.
We’ll know soon enough whether the governor pays a price for this. He might not: DeSantis’ advantage in statewide polling already suggests that Floridians are willing to overlook the Republican’s many failures.
But Democrats were looking for something that might shake up the race, and the governor just handed them a controversy that could do exactly that.