Starbucks always does a good latte (I'm a chai tea guy, myself — not sure how, just happened one day). But in the fall, only one flavor will do — pumpkin spice. 2017 is no different. The coffee chain officially released its pumpkin spice lattes this week, continuing an 11-year streak that began in fall 2003. Although the drink has remained unchanged since its inception, demand for it is at an all-time peak, with baristas filling orders in nearly 50 countries, according to the company’s website. Starbucks officially advertises it as a fall favorite, with the pumpkin spice latte being the company’s most popular seasonal beverage.
There are theories about why the latte is so successful. Some people point to elements like brain chemistry, for example, pointing out that the caffeine, sugar and salt all make your body feel alert and happy. Others point to the association between fall rituals and good memories, as well as to the desire to be part of something the larger group is participating in.
How the pumpkin spice pie slices up
Regardless of why people flock to pumpkin-flavored coffee, which was the third best-selling pumpkin product in 2015 with $32.7 million in sales, only behind cream ($47.9 million) and pie filling ($134.8 million), Starbucks is leading a host of other businesses to follow suit and jump on the pumpkin spice bandwagon trend. You can find, for example, pumpkin spice ice cream by Halo Top, white pumpkin pie M&Ms, beer, Pepperidge farm cookies, Cheerios, Krispy Kreme donuts and even cough drops.
Get this, there are even pumpkin spice dog treats (Greenies, Only Natural Pet). And all together, these products represent enormous profits. Nielsen data reported in 2015 that nearly four out of 10 (37%) of American consumers bought something pumpkin-flavored. Sales for that year were $361 million, exceeding 2011 sales by a whopping 79%. Forbes pegged the pumpkin spice industry at more than $500 million in 2015.
With the over-saturation of players now trying to take advantage of our insatiable, sweet appetite, there are also speculations that we may be at 'peak spice'. The numbers are starting to justify that claim, too. Analytics company,1010data saw that from August to December of last year, they found that there were 50% more products offered by companies, but sales climbed a meager 21%.
With these numbers in mind and regardless of the potential peak, these same businesses are also using another trend to their advantage—creep. Typically, this refers to the tendency for retailers to push the sale of Christmas items earlier and earlier in the year. But in recent years, creep has affected sales for virtually every holiday, including Valentine’s Day and Easter. This year, creep has resulted in Starbucks’ lattes—which remember, are marketed as a “fall” product—becoming available with other pumpkin spice items weeks before the official start of autumn. Technically, fall doesn’t start until September 22, 2017.
And what’s even stranger about pumpkin spice creep? There’s not even a solid holiday to associate with it. With Christmas, for example, marketers can build up anticipation for consumers, such as with countdown events. But with pumpkin spice, it’s all about generalized feelings and triggers. As long as there are football games, crunchy leaves, the kids heading back to school or any other cue we normally associate with fall, there’s official permission to top it off with a warm, sweet drink bedazzled with notes of nutmeg and cinnamon, even if the temperature outside doesn’t even call for a sweatshirt.
With its own hashtag, Instagram and Twitter account, Starbucks’ pumpkin spice latte shows that the coffee chain knows how to sell to a modern market, creep or no creep. The only question left apparently is, are you up for a Grande or Venti? Pick your latte.
