Odds of Experiencing A Power Outage Today
U.S. Statistics
By analyzing data on blackouts and power outages over a period of ten years, including their frequency, duration and number of affected households on a US state level, data analysts were able to calculate what we call the "Odds Of Experiencing A Power Outage Today". The number gives citizens a good indication of how their home state network performs compared to neighboring states and gives an idea of whether citizens should better prepare for the next blackout to come.
Natural disasters are becoming more frequent
As climate change advances, natural disasters become more frequent and more severe. These events are a leading cause for power outages, which are becoming a concerning problem for a growing number of US citizens.
Weather-related disasters such as hurricanes, tornados, blizzards and wildfires increased over the past decades, causing damage worth billions.
However, run-down electricity grids also contribute to the fact that power outages are much more frequent in some states compared to others. The average US citizen annually experiences more than seven hours without power, according to the latest data from 2021.
The network is subject to the shared responsibility of the federal government and the states, which leads to conflicts and unclear responsibilities. In some states, modernization is deliberately not being pursued to appease voters who fear for rising electricity costs.
U.S. States that are at greatest risk of experiencing a power outage today
District of Columbia
Odds of A Power Outage Today: 0.1%
An analysis of power outages over a period of ten years reveals that the population of Washington D.C. is particularly often affected by power outages.
The cause is relatively simple and has to do with the dense power supply system and population of the city. In cases where power fails, a large number of people are affected simultaneously. The capital state has a population of over 700,000 people, according to latest data.
On average 250,000 residents experience at least one power blackout a year with an average duration of around 49 minutes. Even the White House is not spared from power outages. Even though it runs its own solar panel farm the White House was affected by a blackout caused by an explosion at a power station in 2015.
Maine
Odds of A Power Outage Today: 0.09%
Nearly one third of the population of Maine experiences blackouts and problems with electricity at least once a year. This makes the pine-tree-state one of the states where power outages are particularly common.
Especially during winter, severe cold snaps are quite common and the state is hit hard by power outages that affect thousands of households. Blizzards and sudden cold snaps are becoming increasingly common due to climate change.
If heating and electricity fails for too long, weather conditions can become quite dangerous to those affected. Maine experiences power outages almost every day according to the data. The average blackout is around 93 minutes until solved and power comes back.
New Hampshire
Odds of A Power Outage Today: 0.06%
Increasingly frequent snowfalls and ice storms are causing problems for New Hampshire's power grid. Blackouts occur regularly during extreme weather conditions and so the state’s population became one of the most likely states to suffer from the loss of electricity in the United States.
The analysis shows that in New Hampshire, nearly three million people have lost power at some point in the years examined. The average blackout affects around 13,000 citizens and lasts about one hour and 57 minutes. Most recently, New Hampshire was hit by a power outage caused by a winter storm in January 2023.
The power loss affected at least 100,000 people. In these types of situations, danger not only occurs from the heating not working in freezing temperatures but also from damaged power lines on high voltage touching the ground.
U.S. States that are at lowest risk of experiencing a power outage today
Kansas
Odds of A Power Outage Today: 0.0007%
Power outages are very rare in the state of Kansas. In fact, only 78,000 citizens in total have been affected by electricity outages. The failures of power are extremely rare and when they occur they are usually fixed within 41 minutes.
It is very unlikely that you will experience a power outage in Kansas today. In total, the people of Kansas lost power for 969 minutes per year, recent data shows. In comparison, in California, the power went out for a total of more than 300,000 minutes at various locations.
The biggest recent blackout of Kansas took place in December of 2007 caused by a series of ice storms affecting not only the state of Kansas but big parts of the Great Plains.
Nebraska
Odds of A Power Outage Today: 0.001%
It is very unlikely that you will experience a blackout today if you live in the state of Nebraska. When large-scale power outages do occur, it is usually due to extreme weather conditions such as tornadoes. Data shows that Nebraska only witnessed 319 blackouts in the most recent year.
That is a lot less power outages compared to states like New York or Michigan where more than 1,000 blackouts have happened in just a year. But it is noticeable that it takes a long time before the problem is fixed in case of a power failure.
On average, a power outage in Nebraska lasts two hours and 52 minutes.
Arizona
Odds of A Power Outage Today: 0.008 %
When the power, and therefore the cooling, goes out for a while, it can be dangerous for the elderly and children, especially in the summer when temperatures can reach 107°F or more. Fortunately, this is very rarely the case in Arizona.
Compared to other states, the power grid is quite stable and does not break down very often. Only one in ten Arizona residents has experienced a power outage in the last ten years.
On average, the fault is repaired after two hours and 18 minutes and the air conditioning and refrigerators start up again.
Methodology and source
The research was done by data analysts based on publicly available data published in
"The Blackout Tracker: United States Annual Report 2018"
by the Energy experts of Eaton.
The evaluation of the Odds Of Experiencing A Power Outage on a given day by U.S. states were calculated using the following process: The average number of people affected by power outages was determined by the average of existing data of a ten year period. That figure was then adjusted to account for differences in population sizes across the states by dividing the number of people affected by power outages by the population size of each state.
This resulted in a percentage of people affected by power outages per state and year. To determine the odds of experiencing a power outage on any given day in a particular state, the percentage of people affected by power outages per year was further divided by the number of days in a year.