Most States That Are Reopening Fail to Meet White House Guidelines
More than half of U.S. states have begun to reopen their economies or plan to do so soon. But most fail to meet criteria recommended by the Trump administration to resume business and social activities.
The White House’s guidelines are nonbinding and ultimately leave states’ fates to governors. The criteria suggest that states should have a “downward trajectory” of either documented coronavirus cases or of the percentage of positive tests. Public health experts expressed criticism because “downward trajectory” was not defined and the metrics do not specify a threshold for case numbers or positive rates.
Still, most states that are reopening fail to adhere to even those recommendations: In more than half of states easing restrictions, case counts are trending upward, positive test results are rising, or both, raising concerns among public health experts.
After weeks of shutdowns, 30 states have started or will soon begin to return to work and some parts of public life.
Most of these states are reopening with more new cases or a higher share of positive tests than two weeks ago.
The White House said states should have a “downward trajectory” of cases over a 14-day period before reopening. But most of the states reopening have actually had an increase of daily average cases in the past two weeks.
If a state has not had a decrease in cases, the White House said it could still reopen if its share of positive coronavirus tests was lower than it was 14 days before. These states have a higher average share of positive test results than two weeks prior.
If testing decreases though, positive results can decrease along with it. To follow the White House guidance, a state with a decreasing number of positive results should also have steady or increased testing. In South Dakota and Utah, reported testing has declined.
The White House’s guidance also indicated that before reopening, states should see a decline in the number of patients with symptoms consistent with the coronavirus and resume normal hospital capacities, but the general guidelines lacked specifics on how to measure the recommendations.
In recent weeks, public health experts have released estimates on the number of tests needed before a state can reopen safely, as well as its rate of positive results. Many states fail to meet that criteria as well.
“With so many places opening up before we see indicators of meaningful, sustained transmission declines, there is substantial risk of resurgence,” said Kimberly Powers, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
tests is more than 10% (dashed line)
These states have a rate of positive tests above 10 percent, which is the maximum recommended by some experts for states to reopen. High positive test rates suggest many people with the virus have gone untested.
The number of coronavirus tests performed by these states is also well below the minimum level experts recommended — about 152 tests per 100,000 people daily. Only Rhode Island and North Dakota now report daily tests above that level.
A downward trajectory doesn’t necessarily indicate a state has contained the outbreak. Cases in New York have been declining, but the state, which has become the epicenter of the crisis, still has an average of more than 3,000 new cases daily.