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Note from the Data to Disrupt team: Our most heartfelt condolences to the victims and families of the Buffalo mass shooting. We are truly saddened and angered that, once again, Black communities have been targeted by white supremacists and xenophobes, while elected leaders and right-wing media continue to spread racist ideologies with dire human impact. We have been tracking this disturbing and dangerous trend, and we will continue to work to provide data to help hold those who traffic in this hate accountable. |
1. What’s at stake: America’s cultural identity |
The racially-motivated mass shooting in Buffalo is not an anomaly. The armed white supremacist left a manifesto echoing the “Great Replacement Theory” — a racist conspiracy theory that asserts that immigrants are a part of a coordinated invasion of the U.S. led by Jews. The ideology has been embraced as a central organizing principle of the GOP’s midterm strategy. How? Let’s rewind to the major GOP ad themes we told you about in an earlier edition of Data to Disrupt: “Invasion” at the southern border. Democrats incentivize migrants with benefits like mass amnesty. Fentanyl and overdoses coming through to the border and killing Americans.
Case in point — just this week, Sen. Ted Cruz tweeted: “Over 2 million illegal aliens streamed across the border last year. This is an invasion we’re seeing because Joe Biden refuses to enforce the law!” It’s no wonder that a THIRD of Americans believe in some version of the “great replacement theory” and why we’re now seeing these xenophobic themes materialize both in mass killings and immigration policy. Title 42 and attempts to keep it: The debate is much bigger than just Title 42; it’s a turning point for Democrats. For the GOP, it’s about keeping in place a policy that literally would keep Black and Brown immigrants out of the U.S. — sound familiar? For Democrats, it’s about whether they’re willing to be complicit by voting for the Lankford-Sinema bill that would effectively dismantle our asylum system and send a dangerous signal to the American electorate.
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2. GOP ads echo murderous white nationalist manifestos |
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Screenshot from Mike Collins TV and digital in GA-10 primary, which began running online on May 14, 2022 |
The racist fiction of a migrant invasion is directly linked to the “great replacement theory.” The subtext is not subtle — the dangerous “other” is invading us so they can replace us. The white nationalist gunmen who attacked Pittsburgh, El Paso, and Buffalo all cited a migrant “invasion” as part of their twisted motivation for mass murder. This rhetoric of “invasion” has been increasingly touted by Republicans. Over the last year America’s Voice ad tracking project has identified: |
3. It’s not just Elise Stefanik. Search: The GOP. |
For months, GOP politicians have been pushing the narrative of an invasion at the southern border. On Twitter, Republican candidates from across the country used the term “invasion” to refer to border crossings hundreds of times. Since the beginning of the year, there have been 236 tweets that employ the “invasion” theme by top-of-the-ticket Republicans running for office in 2022. Republican National Committee — @GOP Sen. Marco Rubio — @marcorubio Rep. Michael Cloud — @RepCloudTX This is a complete dereliction of duty. Without Title 42, our Border Patrol officers will experience an illegal immigrant surge at record-shattering levels. The Biden administration knows this, and they're complicit in this continued invasion.
J.D. Vance — @JDVance1
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4. [NEW] Voter study of PA and FL voters stresses need to swing big on immigration — it pays off |
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A new voter study of Florida and Pennsylvania voters conducted by BlueLabs found: When voters learned of President Biden’s action on immmigration, his approval rating, and particularly his approval on immigration, went up. The biggest swings were with Hispanics, women, independents, voters over 50, and voters without a college degree. But when they were exposed to both positive immigration messaging and GOP-style negative messages, the effect was nullified. Bottom line: Democrats need to lean into values-and-solutions based immigration messaging — loudly — to combat the anti-immigrant hyperbole by Republicans and right-wing media. The math pays off when Democrats counter the GOP + talk about humane immigration reforms they will fight for and solutions already in place. See John Fetterman.
Keep modeling: There’s more than one reason John Fetterman won the Democratic nominee for Senate on Tuesday night – but one thing is for sure, he and his wife, Gisele Fetterman, made good strides on immigration messaging. “Immigration is what makes America, America,” he says in an ad campaign. “We need a compassionate response to immigration reform that actually treats immigrants like human beings.” |
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5. Right-wing media’s April obsession over Title 42 |
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Source: Critical Mentions |
In the month of April, there were: 5,911 negative mentions of immigration in right-wing media, More than 200,000 negative references to immigration on all of Twitter 5,143 mentions from GOP Twitter accounts.
This was primarily driven by Republicans pushing Title 42 narratives in the media and Gov. Greg Abbott's decision to send migrants by bus to Washington, DC.
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6. 2022 Timeline: Snapshot of rightwing real-world impacts to the American narrative and policy |
January 7 — Florida Governor DeSantis signs an executive rule directing Florida’s Department of Children and Families to stop issuing or renewing the licenses of federally funded facilities that house migrant children who are waiting to be reunited with their families or vetted sponsors. January 19 — Fox News reveals that court documents show the number of border encounters in December before their official release. Republicans framed this on Twitter as the Biden administration actively “refusing to release” the numbers to hide the “border crisis.” January 25 — Florida Republican legislators introduce a bill that would codify DeSantis’s attacks against unaccompanied children by blocking and punishing transportation companies that bring children and other immigrants to be processed and reunified with their families. February 8 — A widespread Twitter campaign among GOP House members pushes the connection between fentanyl and the border crisis. March 17 — Tucker Carlson claims that “another border surge is coming” and that we need to “end the invasion” by sending US troops to the southern border. April 6 — Texas Governor Greg Abbott orders the Department of Public Safety to immediately begin enhanced inspections of commercial vehicles crossing into the state from Mexico and announces that Texas will bus migrants to Washington, DC following the CDC’s decision to revoke Title 42. April 21 — Gov. Abbott says he is openly considering “whether to invoke actual war powers” against immigrants and refugees using the “invasion” framing April 25 — A congressional Republican delegation tours the border to keep it in the news. April 28 — DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warns, “Domestic violent extremism poses the greatest terrorism related threat to our homeland.” May 6 — A USA Today report reveals that Border Patrol union president Brandon Judd has been spreading the “great replacement theory.”
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Got a question or request for any messaging research? Email us at info@datatodisrupt.org. |
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