A New Study Shows Conservative Fears of “Transition Regret” Are Overblown

In a large patient pool, 98% of trans youth who took puberty blockers ended up choosing hormone therapy.
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A new review of medical data has found even more proof that transgender youth know who they are — and that fears over transition regret are dramatically overblown by anti-trans activists.

The study, published October 20 in The Lancet, a prestigious and long-running medical journal, reviewed information from the Amsterdam Cohort of Gender Dysphoria about trans patients who took puberty blockers before turning 18. Researchers examined the medical records of 720 patients at Amsterdam UMC’s Center for Expertise on Gender Dysphoria who had historically received at least three months of puberty blockers as minors, and attempted to determine how many of those patients had an active prescription for hormone replacement therapy on file as of December 31, 2018.

Of the entire cohort, 704 were found to have active HRT prescriptions at the end of the data collection period — a massive 98% of the patients analyzed.

As for the remaining 2%, researchers cautioned that the absence of data doesn’t mean they necessarily returned to identifying with their gender assigned at birth; most of those 16 had undergone some form of gonadectomy as part of their transition-related care, researchers noted, and may not realize they still need hormone treatment to avoid osteoporosis or other conditions. Others could be nonbinary and not desire further hormonal treatment, or may have been pressured into halting treatment by outside stressors, such as unaccepting family members.

“I think it’s an important finding because we see that most of these people continue to use gender-affirming hormones,” said Marianne van der Loos, the paper’s lead author and a physician at Amsterdam UMC's gender identity clinic, in an interview with NPR.

Her clinic emphasizes mental health care as a part of transitioning, van der Loos explained, so due to that support, “it’s not really surprising that so many people continue to [receive] treatment later on.” (Conversely, an American Medical Association report in February confirmed that lack of access to puberty blockers or hormone therapy was strongly correlated with poor mental health and suicidal ideation among trans youth.)

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While interviewing Arkansas’ attorney general, Stewart left “both sides”-ism behind and stuck to the facts.

The Amsterdam study’s findings affirm previous research into the persistence of gender identity among trans youth, and illustrate some of the challenges in identifying why a small number of people halt or reverse their medical transitions. Another study of over 300 young people from the Princeton Trans Youth Project published in May indicated that around 97.5% persisted in identifying as trans and/or nonbinary at the end of a five-year study period.

These studies increasingly demonstrate that the ongoing conservative freakout over gender identity and trans “desistance” is, at best, a massive overreaction. In an interview on liberal comedian Jon Stewart’s show The Problem earlier this month, Arkansas Attorney General Leslie Rutledge claimed that 98% of gender-dysphoric youth will eventually identify as cisgender — not only an “incredibly made-up” statistic, as Stewart noted, but per the Amsterdam and Princeton studies, precisely the inverse of what is true.

As trans youth around the world face opposition to their medical needs due to cisgender politicians’ ignorance and bigotry, it’s important to have as much information about our lived experiences as possible. The reality is that trans kids aren’t a “social contagion,” nor are they sad, deluded teenagers; they’re just young people who deserve care and support, like everyone else.

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