The current surge of coronavirus cases in Michigan and parts of Canada may foreshadow what’s to come elsewhere in the US as people move around more and a contagious viral variant spreads, one expert modeling the pandemic said Saturday.
Ali Mokdad, of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), said via Twitter that the more easily transmitted B.1.1.7 variant first seen in Britain is fueling the spread, but so is people’s behavior.
“B.1.1.7 surge is unfolding in the northern states of the US and Canada. The rapid increases in cases seen in Michigan may be a marker of what may unfold in other parts of the US and Canada,” Mokdad, a population health professor, said on Twitter. “Cases and deaths are increasing in Europe despite extensive social distancing mandates, slowly increasing vaccination rates, and reduced mobility."
On Thursday: The IHME upped its estimate of how many people are likely to die from coronavirus in the US by July 1 to 609,000 deaths, up from 600,000 in last week’s forecast.
The spread of new variants may be in part to blame, but so is the relaxation of social distancing and mask mandates, the IHME said.
“Overly rapid reopening, well documented in the rapid increases in mobility in the US, increases the risk of an April/May surge despite rapid scale-up of vaccination,” Mokdad tweeted. "The trajectory of the pandemic requires stronger preventive measures and depends on the behavioral response in terms of vaccine confidence, mask-wearing, and avoidance of situations that pose a high risk for transmission.”